Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

Synchronous coupling of an Earth system model with an energy-economics model eliminates important sources of climate and human system prediction uncertainty

The inconsistencies associated with asynchronous, one-way coupling of human and Earth system models, and to eliminate inconsistencies by designing and implementing a synchronous two-way coupled model of human and Earth system processes were identified and quantified by a research team at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, The Joint Global Change Research Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, The University of Maryland, and The Field to Market: The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture for the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) in the Earth System Modeling program.

By passing information on biospheric processes from the Earth system model to the human system model, impacts of climate change are allowed to influence the energy-economic systems. Higher CO₂ concentrations lead to increased vegetation productivity, higher crop yields (including biomass energy crops), lower crop prices, and reduced conversion of forest to cropland.

The research quantified an important source of uncertainty in the kind of global-scale simulation that has been used in the past to provide scientific background for energy system analysis. It was demonstrated that is is possible with the use of a fully-coupled human-Earth system model to eliminate this source of uncertainty and improve constraints on the prediction of future climate.

The Earth System Modeling Program (ESM) Program contributes to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and coordinates its activities with the climate modeling programs at other federal agencies, particularly the National Science Foundation (NSF) through the CESM project, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Thornton, P. E., K. Calvin, A. D. Jones, A. V. Di Vittorio, B. Bond-Lamberty, L. Chini, X. Shi, J. Mao, W. D. Collins, J. Edmonds, A. Thomson, J. Truesdale, A. Craig, M. Branstetter and G. Hurtt 2017. Nature Clim. Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3310