Showing 28 results for Author: Ming Fan
Apr, 2026
Conference Paper
Reservoir inflow prediction is crucial for water resource management, yet existing approaches mainly focus on single-reservoir models that ignore spatial dependencies among interconnected reservoirs. We introduce AdaTrip as an adaptive, time-varying graph learning framework for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting. AdaTrip constructs dynamic graphs where reservoirs are nodes…
Mar, 2026
Conference Paper
Deep learning models have shown promise in reservoir inflow prediction, yet their performance often deteriorates when applied to different reservoirs due to distributional differences, referred to as the domain shift problem. Domain generalization (DG) solutions aim to address this issue by extracting domain-invariant representations that mitigate errors in unseen domains.…
Mar, 2026
Conference Paper
Sparse observations and coarse-resolution climate models limit effective regional decision-making, underscoring the need for robust downscaling. However, existing AI methods struggle with generalization across variables and geographies and are constrained by the quadratic complexity of Vision Transformer (ViT) self-attention. We introduce ORBIT-2, a scalable foundation mod…
Mar, 2026
Conference Paper
Relative permeability plays an important role in the upscaling of multiphase flow in porous media from the pore scale to the Darcy scale. The entire concept of relative permeability is contingent on the existence of a representative elementary volume (REV). As we move to smaller samples to measure relative permeability, such as with digital core analysis, the concept of a…
Mar, 2026
Conference Paper
Vision Transformers (ViTs) are pivotal for foundational models in scientific imagery, including Earth science applications, due to their capability to process large sequence lengths. While transformers for text have inspired scaling sequence lengths in ViTs, adapting these for ViTs introduces unique challenges. We develop distributed sequence parallelism for ViTs, enabling…
Mar, 2026
Journal
Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for effective water resource management, yet most machine learning models focus on single-reservoir prediction and overlook spatial dependencies among hydrologically connected reservoirs. We propose AGFormer (Adaptive Graph-Informed Transformer), an end-to-end framework that integrates adaptive graph learning with temporal s…
Dec, 2025
Journal
Earth system predictability is challenged by the complexity of environmental dynamics and the multitude of variables involved. Current AI foundation models, although advanced by leveraging large and heterogeneous data, are often constrained by their size and data integration, limiting their effectiveness in addressing the full range of Earth system prediction challenges. T…
Nov, 2025
Journal
Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlik…
Aug, 2025
Journal
We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterizat…
Jul, 2025
Journal
Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-varia…
Jun, 2025
Journal
We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. By replacing computationally intensive iter…
Mar, 2025
Journal
Streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal…