Publications

Showing 86 results for Author: Moetasim Ashfaq

View All publications

  • Aug, 2026

    Conference Paper

    Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

    Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Trav…

  • Mar, 2026

    Conference Paper

    ORBIT-2: Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling

    Sparse observations and coarse-resolution climate models limit effective regional decision-making, underscoring the need for robust downscaling. However, existing AI methods struggle with generalization across variables and geographies and are constrained by the quadratic complexity of Vision Transformer (ViT) self-attention. We introduce ORBIT-2, a scalable foundation mod…

  • Mar, 2026

    Conference Paper

    Sequence length scaling in vision transformers for scientific images on frontier

    Vision Transformers (ViTs) are pivotal for foundational models in scientific imagery, including Earth science applications, due to their capability to process large sequence lengths. While transformers for text have inspired scaling sequence lengths in ViTs, adapting these for ViTs introduces unique challenges. We develop distributed sequence parallelism for ViTs, enabling…

  • Jan, 2026

    Journal

    Tree-ring evidence marks year 2022 as the driest spring season in nearly four centuries in the Western Himalayas

    The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is a crucial freshwater source for billions across South Asia, yet its climate remains poorly understood due to limited long-term records. Winter and spring precipitation govern snow accumulation and downstream water availability in dry months particularly across the Western Himalayas (WH), but recent decades show intensifying droug…

  • Jan, 2026

    Journal

    Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High-Resolution Projections

    This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their…

  • Dec, 2025

    Journal

    ORBIT: Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability

    Earth system predictability is challenged by the complexity of environmental dynamics and the multitude of variables involved. Current AI foundation models, although advanced by leveraging large and heterogeneous data, are often constrained by their size and data integration, limiting their effectiveness in addressing the full range of Earth system prediction challenges. T…

  • Sep, 2025

    Journal

    Investigation of the genesis and intensification of simultaneous cyclones in the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal in November 2020

    The North Indian Ocean (NIO), which includes the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS), is frequently impacted by tropical cyclones (TCs). Notably, in November 2020, the simultaneous occurrence of Cyclones Gati in the AS and Nivar in the BoB presented a rare and compelling phenomenon worthy of investigation. This study delves into the underlying mechanisms driving t…

  • Aug, 2025

    Journal

    Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

    The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemb…

  • Jun, 2025

    Journal

    Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

    Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough…

  • Sep, 2024

    Journal

    Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

    Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SA…

  • Apr, 2024

    Journal

    Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems

    In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not well established. Here, we identify the tropical and extratropical forcings…

  • Apr, 2024

    Journal

    Seasonal variability and predictability of monsoon precipitation in Southern Africa

    Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation…

1
2
…
8

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

1 Bethel Valley Road

Oak Ridge, TN 37830

(+1) 865-576-7658