- By:
- Shukla, Pratishtha ; Nutaro, James J; Yoginath, Srikanth B
- Page Number:
- 734-745
- Book Title:
- Winter Simulation Conference 2023
- Publication Date:
- February 5, 2024
- Publisher Location:
- IEEE, New Jersey, United States of America
- Conference Name:
- Winter Simulation Conference 2023 (WSC)
- Conference Location:
- San Antonio, Texas, United States of America
- Conference Sponsor:
- American Statistical Association (ASA), Technical Co-Sponsor; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers: Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society (IEEE/SMC), Technical Co-Sponsor
- View DOI Listing:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098
Abstract
This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.
